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Oil prices recovered slightly in early Asian trade on Thursday after a steep drop that pushed WTI and Brent to five-month lows the day before. The rebound was fueled by renewed optimism over U.S. pressure on India to curb its imports of Russian crude, which could tighten arbitrage flows and compress margins for buyers.
At the time of writing, West Texas Intermediate for November delivery was trading 0.91% higher at $58.80 per barrel. Meanwhile, Brent December futures were up 0.89% at $62.46 per barrel.
The price rise came after President Trump said that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had agreed to stop buying Russian crude, a development that could ease oversupply fears. Trump then indicated that he would now attempt to make China do the same thing.
Despite Trump’s comments, the market remains sensitive to lingering concerns over demand and supply dynamics. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that the global oil glut may be larger than expected in 2026 if production from OPEC+ and others continues to ramp up. Meanwhile, U.S.-China trade frictions continue to cloud demand expectations, with the risk that heightened tariffs could erode growth in both economies.
Compounding the uncertainty, U.S. data showed a sizable spike in crude inventories, suggesting that domestic stock builds may already be pressuring the market.
Should India curtail purchases of discounted Russian crude, it could reduce seaborne offerings, especially those sold under the G7 “price cap” mechanism, thereby propping up global balances. But traders will be waiting to see movement in the import numbers.
Meanwhile, if OPEC+ producers continue to expand output or if Chinese demand remains tepid, that upward support may be offset.
Bank of America has recently joined the chorus of bearish voices warning that escalating U.S.–China tensions, coupled with sustained production from OPEC+, may push Brent crude below US$50 per barrel under certain downside scenarios. Still, BofA maintained a base case of around $61 for Q4 2025 and $64 in H1 2026, reflecting a possible “floor” near $55.
It will take more than just words from Trump to change the broader bearish sentiment in oil markets.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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